Illustrative indicators for energy sector transmission and distribution under extreme heat and humidity include reduction in transmission due to sag in overhead power lines, complaint and fire department emergency calls, and power outages and brownouts. Cross‐city analysis reveals that New York and other cities in the Northeast are incorporating equity in their adaptation planning, but largely emphasize distributional equity in these efforts. The above analysis is shown for a demand of 950 MGD of annual average daily flow as a benchmark water demand. The downscaling technique used by NPCC3 is histogram matching. The contour plot shows the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity.
One New York City–region stream record, for the Mahwah River near Suffern, NY, has a statistically significant change point in 1967, which is similar to the change point in rainfall extremes (see Section 184.108.40.206).
It is evident from the paleo streamflow data that the drought of the record, the 1960s drought, is still an extreme event relative to a long‐term drought risk profile.
[City & State N.Y.], Stories, playtime and artwork for ages 2 to 4 at the Staten Island Children’s Museum. The tracks for both types of cyclones are used to associate extreme precipitation with storms. Hospital Row is an area along the East River in Manhattan, between East 23rd to 34th Streets and First Avenue, where three at‐risk hospitals are situated. These 311 flood calls are biased due to two major issues. 10:04 pm. The drought of the record (1960s drought of 6 years and 1000 MGD cumulative deficit) is shown as a red circle on the contour plot.
It is recommended that this work serve as a foundation for new projections of record for heavy rainfall that are to be developed in NPCC4. Larger increases near the coast may also be due to historically lower temperatures due to the local sea breeze.
NPCC3 does not provide new projections for heavy rainfall and confirms the NPCC2 projections as those of record for city planning and adaptation. They are available for developing the next full set of NPCC projections.
For events in winter months, the precipitation more likely fell as snow, but the snow water equivalent is used for this analysis. Baseline data of urban flooding based on complaint calls indicate substantial spatial variation across NYC from 2004 to 2015 (Fig.
2.9). Script Developed by Murry Conarroe of Wildwood Weather. Radar was processed with the Hydro‐NEXRAD algorithms (Seo et al., 2011) and corrected with a daily multiplicative bias (as in Smith et al., 2012) using rain gauges from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest system (NOAA MADIS, https://madis.ncep.noaa.gov). A GCM is a mathematical representation of the behavior of the Earth's climate system over time that can be used to estimate its sensitivity to atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and land use change. A change point in sub‐daily heavy rainfall events can be detected at the Central Park rain gauge in the mid‐1960s for the annual maxima of 3‐hourly rainfall; the only significant trend found was for 3‐h annual maximum rainfall depth at the JFK rain gauge. Comparing the impacts of northeast hurricanes on energy infrastructure. The bias correction technique corrects for both differences in model mean and standard deviation using a linear model, or: Sample of bias‐corrected GCM distributions for maximum temperatures for the training period of 2006–2015. In the New York metropolitan region, extratropical cyclones (e.g., nor'easters) cause the greatest number of extreme daily precipitation events in each month of the year, compared to tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes) and non‐cyclone rain events. Mellow‐Yamada‐Janjic (Nakanishi and Niino, Occasional regulations and upstream releases, Occasional regulation, channel modified in 1991 and 1997, Diversion upstream, a portion is regulated, Upstream diversion water supply and golf courses, Three or more consecutive days at or above 90 °F, Duration of heat wave (number of days average heat wave lasts), Average maximum temperature during heat wave (heat wave intensity), LaGuardia Airport (extreme heat, humidity), Delta method used for GCM bias correction, 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles across both RCPs and 26 GCM outputs, GCM mean and variance bias correction to temperature station records.
and you may need to create a new Wiley Online Library account. (Map constructed by NPCC3 Community‐Based Adaptation Workgroup.).
For NPCC3, historical trends in heavy downpours were analyzed using hourly data from multiple New York City area NOAA rain gauges at Central Park, LaGuardia Airport, JFK Airport, and Newark Airport. Table 2.E.1 summarizes the individual and joint probability of exceedances and return periods of the drought duration and severity. However, the drought stress is very sensitive to regional water demand. One reason for the uncertainty is the presence of modes of natural variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation,33 The North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, is a fluctuation in sea‐level atmospheric pressure between the Icelandic Low and Azores High. The severity of the drought, measured as the cumulative deficit, is approximately 1000 MGD. Climate change refers to a significant change in the state of the climate that can be identified from changes in the average state or the variability of weather and that persists for an extended time period, typically decades to centuries or longer. Scroll down. NPCC3 confirms the use of NPCC2 projections as those of record for decision‐making in the City of New York.
To test the approach for the New York metropolitan region, GCM projections are downscaled using an urbanized version of the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF; Skamarock et al., 2008) developed and maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Other paleoclimate studies using pollen assemblages suggest drought conditions from ∼800 to 1300 AD as well (Pederson et al., 2005). For the case of New York City, the attribution of these rapid decreases of cold spells may be a combined effect of global warming and urbanization. 2.4) is relatively large. Marijuana legalization has hit a wall, first in New Jersey and now in New York.
In order to investigate trends, streamflow data for flash flooding in small watersheds near New York City was used as a proxy (see Appendix 2.E). Increases in specific humidity combined with increasing temperatures might lead to higher heat index (see Box 2.2), which has major consequences for human health and is a driver of peak energy demand for space cooling, as air conditioning systems remove sensible (temperature‐related) and latent (moisture‐related) heat from buildings.
The seasonal mean is the corrected mean using the reanalysis's historical seasonally varying mean, while keeping the model's climate perturbation.
In order to define current baseline and spatial variation for heavy downpours in New York City, a high‐resolution rainfall dataset for 1 km2 and 15‐min intervals was developed using warm season rainfall from 2001 to 2015 for the Fort Dix, NJ (KDIX) SR‐88D (Weather Surveillance Radar, 1988 Doppler) radar in Mount Holly, New Jersey operated by the NWS (see Appendix 2.D for details of methods). Extratropical cyclones cause the largest number of extreme 24‐h precipitation events in New York City in every month out of the year.
Based on emerging science, NPCC3 introduces a new methodology for analyzing heat and precipitation extremes that could be used for developing future projections of record in NPCC4.
All Rights Reserved, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Transactions of the New York Academy of Sciences, Annals Special Issue: Advancing Tools and Methods for Flexible Adaptation Pathways and Science Policy Integration: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report. Historic trends in heavy downpours are difficult to establish.
The test includes bias correction, a method that adjusts the mean and variance of GCM results to match a representative set of observations from the region, and high‐resolution regional climate modeling. The 10th percentile threshold for cold days was 24.1 °F from the entire 1900–2017 record. To the extent possible, consistency with NPCC2 is maintained.
[Want to get New York Today by email? If you do not receive an email within 10 minutes, your email address may not be registered, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ushcn/introduction, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Figure 2.E.1 presents the joint probability distribution of the drought duration and severity as seen from the paleo records.
Short‐duration heavy rainfall that produces flooding in urban areas is typically driven by warm‐season thunderstorms with the most extreme rain rates occurring in the evening (Ntelekos et al., 2007).
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